Evaluating ecological efficacy of climate adaptation actions can improve natural resource management
Meagan Ford Oldfather PhD, USGS, North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center
Despite widespread recommendations for climate adaptation, there is little evidence supporting the efficacy of specific management actions in reducing the negative ecological consequences of climate change, leaving managers with limited guidance to support decision-making. Assessing ecological efficacy of adaptation actions, that is, to what degree actions achieve natural resource conservation objectives under a changing climate (hereafter “ecological adaptation efficacy”) presents unique challenges, including a lack of representative counterfactuals, non-stationarity of climate and ecological processes, and a large range of relevant temporal and spatial scales. We review multiple approaches that can be used to advance the methodology of and build the evidence base for ecological adaptation efficacy despite these challenges. These approaches include 1) experiments where climate variables are manipulated to assess the impacts of management actions; 2) process-based models of how management alternatives may affect a particular system; and 3) in-situ assessment of implemented management actions both at single sites and multiple comparative sites. For each approach, we consider the assumptions, data needs, and implications for inference. We highlight examples from different ecosystems and adaptation approaches to demonstrate how meaningful efficacy analyses can be achieved, even with limited data. Finally, we lay out future research directions to support assessments of ecological efficacy of climate adaptation actions.
Meagan Oldfather is a Biologist with the USGS North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center. Meagan investigates vegetation responses to changing climate in topographically complex and arid systems, including in the Great Basin and the Colorado Rockies. Her field-based, quantitative, and synthesis-based work is motivated by supporting climate adaptation in the North Central region. She has expertise in both population biology and community ecology and is associated with the Niwot Ridge Long-term Ecological Research and GLORIA Great Basin programs.
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