Published

Grimm 9714833 This project is a long-term study of the Phoenix metropolitan area and fringing regions of central Arizona into which Phoenix is rapidly expanding. Objectives of this LTER program are to: 1) generate and test general ecological theory in an urban environment, 2) enhance understanding of the ecology of cities, 3) identify feedbacks between ecological and socio-economic factors, and 4) involve K-12 students in the enterprise of scientific discovery. Phoenix is one of the largest and most rapidly growing cities of the arid and semi-arid American west. Because Phoenix is young, urban redevelopment is minor compared to expansive growth of the city’s edges, where agricultural lands and natural desert habitats are being rapidly converted to suburbia. Historic patterns of growth will be reconstructed using maps, planning documents, aerial photographs and satellite imagery to generate a GIS-based record of urban change. Modeling will be centered on a hierarchical, spatially-explicit, patch-dynamic approach, based on land-use patch types. At intermediate scales, landscape models will be developed to determine configuration effects of multiple patches. A regional simulation model of the entire area will be developed to predict and test ecological consequences of alternative patterns of future development. Patch-specific ecological characteristics will be monitored in five core areas: primary production, natural population and community characteristics, storage and dynamics of organic matter, movement of materials (including water), and patterns of disturbances by redevelopment, fire and flood. A successional model will guide this work; both short-term ecological trends associated with land-use change at the patch scale, and long-term changes as patches mature will be followed. Of special interest is ecological change within a given patch type on the city-center to suburban-edge gradient. Socioeconomic factors are included in this study as feedbacks between land-use decisions and ecol ogical characteristics. That is, how do ecological features shape land-use decisions and how, in return, do ecological consequences modify future land use policy? Research will determine the importance of ecological factors to individual perceptions of quality of life. In addition, objective analyses of change in property values and shifting demographic patterns within the urban landscape will be assessed as an indicator of ecological and other values. These efforts will be enriched by multiple partnerships with agencies and municipalities. This research effort includes a substantial commitment to K-12 education by involving teachers and students as hands-on research partners, through interaction with developing urban science curricula, and by providing a real time electronic interface with research discoveries via the Internet. This component of the project is enhanced by a strong interface with numerous educational partners in the greater Phoenix area.