The Sevilleta Long Term Ecological Research program (SEV LTER) studies the ecology of environmental variability, from individual organisms to ecosystems. Predicting the consequences of environmental change is one of the greatest challenges at the interface of science and society. Climate change and resource use alter long-term trends in the environment, with results such as hotter weather. However, the environment has also become increasingly more variable, such as droughts followed by deluges. These dual changes to long-term trends and variability could have large biological impacts that are challenging to predict. Drylands are among the most variable places on Earth. Drylands are also facing large changes in vegetation, such as shrubs replacing grasslands and the loss of native forests. These transitions may be highly sensitive to dual changes in the environment. To understand the ecology of environmental variability, research activities include long-term monitoring and specimen archives for plants, animals, and microbes. Innovative field experiments make precipitation drier and more variable. Field sensors give high resolution data on changes in water, carbon, and phenology. Trait and genetic monitoring help to understand evolutionary change. Long-term data are used in models to forecast change in vegetation, diversity, animal populations, and ecosystem cycles. SEV LTER recruits and trains diverse participants at all levels of learning. University courses connect students with community groups to solve climate change challenges. K-12 programs serve disadvantaged students in New Mexico, which has the highest percentage of Hispanic and Latino community members and is also the most water-stressed state. Benefits to society include improved predictions on the future of dryland biodiversity and resources, training the next generation of diverse scientists, and collaborating with land managers to sustain critical land and water resources.
Prior ecological research has largely emphasized changes in mean trends (such as warming) or singular extreme events (such as a drought), yet theory predicts that temporal variability in the environment can have powerful ecological and evolutionary consequences. The consequences of temporal environmental variability arise from nonlinear biological responses to stochastic environmental drivers. Thus far, advances in theory on temporal environmental variability have largely developed independently in population biology, evolution, community ecology, and ecosystem science. Empirical understanding of the biological impacts of environmental variability has lagged behind theory because the effects manifest over long time scales, making long-term support critical to progress at this scientific frontier. The Sevilleta Long Term Ecological Research program (SEV LTER) is guided by the question: How do changes in the mean and variance of environmental conditions independently and interactively affect the dynamics of dryland ecosystems and transitions among them? Research activities will advance the frontiers of ecology by developing and testing theory on the ecological consequences of shifts in both the mean and variance of water resources, integrated over space, time, and levels of biological organization that span genotypes to landscapes. Activities include long-term observations, experiments, specimen archives, and models to confront theory with data from six major dryland ecosystems. A novel experiment factorially manipulates precipitation mean and variance to resolve their potential interactive effects. Trait and genetic monitoring build a mechanism-based understanding of biological responses to mean and variance that links evolution to ecosystem function. Continuous measurements of ecosystem fluxes, phenology, soil moisture, run-off, and groundwater provide exceptional resolution on water and carbon dynamics. Predictive models assimilate observational and experimental results to forecast change in (1) ecosystem transitions driven by the spatio-temporal trajectories of foundation plants, (2) ecosystem functions in carbon, water, and nitrogen cycles, (3) the eco-evolutionary dynamics of genotypic and phenotypic diversity, and (4) consumer dynamics in shifting resource landscapes. The diversity of ecotones against the backdrop of a drier and more variable climate advances long-term understanding of the causes and consequences of dryland ecosystem transitions. SEV LTER supports interdisciplinary graduate and professional training, comprehensive diversity, equity, and inclusion activities, undergraduate research programs, and a flagship schoolyard (K-12) program. Activities include a diversity-focused project management plan, a new mentorship program with Southwestern Indian Polytechnic Institute, and embedded high school teachers that educate underrepresented, economically challenged students in New Mexico. Community resources include innovative Resilience Solutions Incubator courses that bring undergraduates together with community partners, listening sessions with regional tribes and Pueblos, and an outside-of-the-academy Data Science Bootcamp for the state workforce. Strong collaborations with regional land managers inform SEV LTER research and extend the broader impacts of the program’s substantial research infrastructure by increasing the use and application of high-quality public data products.
This award reflects NSF’s statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation’s intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
